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Mathematicians find the formula for a hit film sequel

Source: guardian.co.uk Film

Nov 08, 2009

Summary

Calculation aims to take risk out of deciding whether follow-ups to cinema hits will be a sure thing, or a disastrous gamble

Ever wondered why Spider-Man 2 triumphed and Basic Instinct 2 bombed? Now a group of academics have come up with a mathematical formula to predict the fortunes of a film sequel.

Hollywood has long known a follow-up is a fairly safe bet and franchises from Pirates of the Caribbean to Star Wars have dominated cinema schedules for years. But until now decisions about what to invest in a sequel or how much to pay for rights to a franchise have been based on some simple rules of thumb and a good dose of gut feeling.

Based on factors such as whether key stars are still on board, how long it has been since the last film and how that performed, the researchers say they can calculate what producers can expect to gross relative to a film in the same genre that is not a sequel.

"It is the industry of dreams, an industry of illusions, and lots of people go bust. The idea here is to put some more analytical thinking into the process," says Professor Tho

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