socialmedian: Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent

Hi there. I'm Jason, one of the founders of socialmedian.

socialmedian delivers the news, filtered by your network.

We'd love to have you join in.

You can use facebook connect to sign in.

Add News Flash

User-submitted headlines for this story

Clips

Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

Nov 06, 2009

Summary

Oops. Back in August, I said that I thought there was only about a 1 in 3 chance that unemployment would break the 10 percent barrier. I think it was a well-reasoned analysis, but sure did turn out wrong.

The data from the establishment survey -- which is completely separate from the household survey by which the unemployment rate is calculated -- wasn't quite as bad. This is the figure that the markets tend to trust more, which is one reason the Dow is slightly up today (although I do think it's somewhat overvalued and has been for a month or so). Still, even the "good" report had the economy shedding another 190,000 jobs.

Not that it necessarily means anything, but there's an odd symmetry to that graph: a period from January through August last year where the payroll deltas were bad, but fairly steady from month to month, and then an inverted peak where things were really awful, and now what looks to be another sort of plateau. January 2008 was the month when the payrolls figure turned negative, and they were at their worst in January 2009 -- if things in ...Read the full article

Comments (0)

Add Your Comment