Republicans had their best election night for years. But their civil war over a safe seat let the Democrats dodge a bullet

What do these strange, odd-year elections – suddenly so feverishly important, now that America's excitable right-wingers from Rush Limbaugh on down demand that they be – tell us about Barack Obama's political health? Not very much, really.

Certainly, the Republicans have reason to celebrate their wins in the governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey. The latter, especially, is a feather in the party's cap, and if Obama suffered one hurtful blow tonight, it happened because he campaigned for that state's Democratic governor Jon Corzine on three occasions. That Obama couldn't pull Corzine's irons out of the fire does tell us that some of that 2008 lustre is gone, even in a pro-Obama state.

But it tells us other things too. As much as pundits try every four years to use Virginia and New Jersey results as precursors to next year's congressional elections, what they actually are is post-cursors: in every election since 1989, the two states have