socialmedian: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 11/1

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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 111

Submitted by Jonfa

6 days ago

Summary

As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible. Read the full article

Comments (11)

Locris,

6 days ago

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.

Jasongoldberg,

6 days ago

@locris @jonfa @nemsoli @bushmanbill @diordna i find it interesting that a lot is being made of PA "tightening" when the current poll of polls show it tightening to 7 points. Although the data is showing that both Kerry and Gore did about 5% worse in PA in the actual election than pre-election polls were showing.

Seaman13,

6 days ago

Don't take these polls seriously. This time we had too many thousand polls more than ever before. The fight is still on and the results will be sen at the end of the day, untill then keep your breath and wauit, everything is possible.

Michaelslogan,

6 days ago

I agree with Seaman 13. I live in Illinois which is supposed to vote for the native son, and I see a lot, a lot of McCain signs.

Notpalin,

5 days ago

parentsagainstpalin.blogspot.com

parents and guardians against palin unite!
(a non-partisan appeal)

Jasongoldberg,

5 days ago

@notpalin stop the spam or you'll be deleted.

Notpalin,

5 days ago

hey jason,

how is directing people to a legitimate political blog, spamming?

Notpalin,

5 days ago

for those of you who don't think posting a url to a blog with an important political--and rational--appeal, do check it out.
thanks for the, uh, actist networking platform. whatever your opinions, work to get the vote out until this election is over.
--and fivethirtyeight.com is an excellent site to stay informed. hey wait, did i just spam again?

Notpalin,

5 days ago

meant to type 'activist'. i stand self-corrected!

Romi1980,

5 days ago

The last time is tomorrow, i think what will be, will be, may God direct all America in order to make the right vote, and stay the first nation in the world.