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Seaman13's Clips

Clips

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 11/1

Nov 02, 2008

Submitted by Jonfa: As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible. (Read More)

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Campaign 2008

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, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL

11 Comments

News Flash

Mood

Locris,

Nov 02, 2008

: This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.

8 more comments

Romi1980,

Nov 03, 2008

: The last time is tomorrow, i think what will be, will be, may God direct all America in order to make the right vote, and stay the first nation in the world.